included in that, leicestershire not included in that, but a huge area, 2.2 million people. a large geographic one stretching from the peak district to south nottinghamshire. lots of attention on this one nationally, we will get the counting under way in about half an hour's time, the result due between one and two o'clock. {flare an hour's time, the result due between one and two o'clock. give us an indication — between one and two o'clock. give us an indication of _ between one and two o'clock. give us an indication of the _ between one and two o'clock. give us an indication of the kind _ between one and two o'clock. give us an indication of the kind of— between one and two o'clock. give us an indication of the kind of role - an indication of the kind of role and powers this political post has. different parts of the country have ranges of powers so city can in london is responsible for quite a lot but less so here in the east midlands. the main kind of areas there will be responsible for our public transport, housing provision, skills and training, so further education. ultimately they will be responsible for hundreds of pounds of central government funding and we are going to get more metro mayors,

being elected to the very first time. i'm detecting a lot of scepticism talking to voters in this part of the world about the idea of having another elected politician and that may well be borne out in the low turnout we get it eventually but that once people understand what a mayor does and we have seen that in greater manchester and the midlands, and those politicians tend to be very well known and they tend to be very well known and they tend to do and perform quite well and in many respects this is different was happening in the west midlands and the tees valley where you have two conservative incumbents that have quite successfully managed to create a sense of them being apolitical, really, standing up for the region and not having to go along with the party is doing nationally. that's not necessarily the case here is i don't think the conservative candidate will do that in quite the same way here as they don't have a track record to speak of. the expectation is that labour are in a

very strong position and this area contains a lot of important parliamentary constituencies that will decide who ultimately wins the general election so if you focus on areas like mansfield, amber valley, these are traditional bellwether seat so very interesting contest. thank you. less talk to richard in the tees valley. what's happening? we are caettin valley. what's happening? we are getting ever _ valley. what's happening? we are getting ever close _ valley. what's happening? we are getting ever close to _ valley. what's happening? we are getting ever close to results - valley. what's happening? we are getting ever close to results and l valley. what's happening? we are. getting ever close to results and we have had three of the five councils that make up the tees valley which have declared and it's good news for the incumbent conservative. he came out on top in all three of those councils. in hartlepool labour had a good count in the elections last night and they got a seats and the conservatives lost eight. it is a

very strong indication that he is going to win here. it's nowhere near the 73% he won in 2021. it's not that sort of triumph and he was saying before this happened he will be glad to win by one vote. i think it looks he has won by more than that but we still have two areas to declare and they could change the picture but he has built up a significant lead. ben howson or rishi sunak, who would be most pleased? there will be serious questions in the conservative party. it... this is a key area, an area where borisjohnson did very well in 2019 and again, the hartlepool by—election on 2021 and keir starmer considered resigning after that but things were looking so bad so labour have turned things around and they have turned things around and they have got a lot closer this time but they will say it's a very personal vote for the incumbent and up but not much solace to rishi sunak or

the conservative mps who want to hold onto their seats in this part of the world. i hold onto their seats in this part of the world.— of the world. i know you keep it un-to-date- — cannock chase council. live now to our correspondent joanne writtle in cannock chase. we are here at the cannock leisure centre and counting is under way and the reason the focus of attention here is because the council has historically been a labour stronghold but in more recent years it changed hands a number of times so back in 2021, the conservatives took control of the cannock chase council for the very first time and then last year labour gained some ground but they didn't gain enough seats to take overall control and so there was no overall control last year with labour and conservatives having an exactly equal number of seats over the last year the council here has been run by a labour and

green alliance. cannock is traditionally a former coal—mining area and in fact the labour leader of the council, tonyjohnson, is a former miner himself and we spoke to him earlier and he said he's feeling cautiously optimistic but it's far too early to tell. the same thoughts echoed by olivia lyons, the tory leader and she said it's too early to tell. this area back in 2016 was very pro brexit with some 70% of the population here voting to come out of the eu. in most years here the council has a third of seats for re—election but this year it's the whole council, all 36 seats due to boundary commission changes and in fact, there are fewer seats up for election compared to previous years because of those changes. the result here is regarded as a potential change, much greater as a measure of public opinion but for now in cannock it'sjust to public opinion but for now in

cannock it's just to watch and wait. thank you very much for that. that's the latest from cannock chase. let's speak tojohn mcternan — who was an advisor to tony blair in downing street. your assessment of the labour performance. i your assessment of the labour performance-— your assessment of the labour performance. i think this shows labour is back— performance. i think this shows labour is back across _ performance. i think this shows labour is back across the - performance. i think this shows i labour is back across the country. performance. i think this shows - labour is back across the country. i was struck yesterday by the police and crime commissioner vote in cumbria, normally the tories pick up cumbria, normally the tories pick up cumbria because the north as labour and the south was live down the tories can devote all across the county but labour holds no parliamentary seats in cumbria but labour got five targets here and it now has a police and crime commissioner on a 22% swing. black bull speaks for itself, 26% swing. blackpool will be the only thing we are talking bitterly because such a massive swing, 26%. we are not talking about because it only the third biggest swing in a by—election for decades and the two biggest ones

were labour against reducing a plasma government recently. something going on. lincoln and redditch with massive wins for labour and labour had a 30% swing in the words i was looking at in plymouth and picking up thurrock in the south—east along the fence and a council was in trouble but labour wanted to pick it up and targeted. you have a picture of labour being able to win the votes where it needs to win them and now you are seeing is that mayoral elections coming thatis is that mayoral elections coming that is a successful for the male role model and people can vote for a figure that they like and his actions they like —— mayoral model... which they see but it's really hard for rishi sunak to become and any street figure. before we come onto — become and any street figure. before we come onto the _ become and any street figure. before we come onto the prime _ become and any street figure. before we come onto the prime minister, . we come onto the prime minister, what about the arguments that turnout is low and we haven't had many results and governing parties

usually take a bit of a kicking in circumstances like this was best not to get overexcited. film. circumstances like this was best not to get overexcited.— to get overexcited. oh, look, i've seen and read — to get overexcited. oh, look, i've seen and read the _ to get overexcited. oh, look, i've seen and read the conservative . seen and read the conservative central office line, you should expect these results in midterms. we are months away from a general election, these are not midterms, these are end terms and so what we are seeing is 20 point lead for labour in the polls and we are seeing the scale of that reflected in these votes. you can see across the country and i'm looking forward to all the police and crime connect to all the police and crime connect to remote commissioners of coming out but although they may be low turnings they are larger than the opinion polls and does a very accurate. this is a massive pole across the country and it shows you how labour is doing and how badly the tories are doing. for party management terms i can understand

that the conservatives will focus on this being local elections but at the beginning of the year they were saying the polls always tighten in an election year in the polls have only tightened in the sense that reform uk is getting closer to the tories and their projected vote. you tories and their pro'ected vote. you are seeinu tories and their projected vote. you are seeing nothing other than a huge labour victory a crushing labour victory in the general election? h0. victory in the general election? no, i see another— victory in the general election? iifr, i see another thing which is, i think there's a huge expectation in the country that the polls will be translated into a labour victory in the general election and i think we are seeing what the public will be looking like if there were a labour government and so what the contours of that. first, tories who distanced themselves from the tory brand and have good local profiles will win such as andy street, ben hooch in the polls. you also see local

factors in a place like oldham where there is a huge independent vote in oldham which in the last three elections has taken the labour leader in each election so there is something big going on there. can i ask ou something big going on there. can i ask you about _ something big going on there. can i ask you about that? _ something big going on there. can i ask you about that? clearly oldham is the story of the impact of the war in gaza and the labour vote and the damage it's doing to the labour vote. how significant do think there could be in the general election? i have not looked at the olden results in detail because i know that there are local candidates there in conspiracy theory about child six abuse other something strange going on in oldham. but i want to say my point about what labour is going to look like. labourwill point about what labour is going to look like. labour will be the largest part of two thirds of voting lib time, labour, green and those are progressive voters. labour needs

to do two things to defend itself on its left and is doing really well to stop losing votes to tories and uk reform —— that reform uk and also to independence we have to be careful about what we need to do is send a message again and again that labour passed a vote in parliament for a ceasefire in gaza and force the government to vote for a ceasefire and the united nations security council. labour has changed its position on gazza, our voters need to hear that loud and clear but they have not heard that and that's clear and that may cost in west midlands by—election. and labour needs to be clear, we are a social democratic party, left of centre party and what we proposed on the green transition and on climate the crisis is a big and on climate the crisis is a big and major programme, as large asjoe biden's act but that's not getting through to the voters. people need

to know we are going green and we are going for peace on gazza and we have to be very strong in addressing that. our message is not a cross yet. that. our message is not a cross et. ~ �* , ., .,, that. our message is not a cross et. ~ �* , ., ., that. our message is not a cross et. �* , ., ., ,, , yet. we'll see how those two issues -la out. yet. we'll see how those two issues play out- great _ yet. we'll see how those two issues play out- great to — yet. we'll see how those two issues play out. great to have _ yet. we'll see how those two issues play out. great to have your - play out. great to have your thoughts. let's speak to taj ali — co—editor of the tribune magazine. we haven't had a lot of caveats. i think it looks like labour is on course to win a landslide and they have been polling significantly higher than the tories in the national polls and they benefit from a deeply unpopular governing party so anything other than stronger results would be quite a shock for us. what i found most interesting was how labour has performed in areas with a sizeable muslim community. numerous results have told us that labour are struggling with the muslim vote. if you look at

what happened in oldham i was speaking to a member of one of the local mosques last night who said turnout is going to be low, people are abandoning the party primarily because what keir starmer had said in october that israel was dividing and cutting off water and electricity to palestinians and that message was put on the leaflets, it was distributed across the country in various selections and i think it's going to cost them in the west midlands election, the west midlands mayoral election when you have an independent candidate who is essentially saying do not vote for labour because they are supportive of what israel is doing in gaza and he probably will not pull more than 3% but maybe it's just enough for the tories to keep that position and i think that's the danger for labour, that the vows become split in numerous constituencies. what labour, that the vows become split in numerous constituencies. what we heard from john _ in numerous constituencies. what we heard from john mctiernan _ in numerous constituencies. what we heard from john mctiernan on - in numerous constituencies. what we heard from john mctiernan on this i heard from john mctiernan on this issue, his line and opinion was the labour party did change position, it did xy and z and vote to have

amendments and the house of commons on the gazza situation with that message has gone out. i on the gazza situation with that message has gone out.- on the gazza situation with that message has gone out. i think people think of too little _ message has gone out. i think people think of too little too _ message has gone out. i think people think of too little too late. _ message has gone out. i think people think of too little too late. there - think of too little too late. there were less numerous calls for labour to adopt a position to call for an immediate ceasefire and we also what happened in parliament. it was the scottish national party who used their opposition day motion twice to call for a ceasefire. that first vote in november with a vast majority of labour mps did not vote for a ceasefire and whose names were recorded and there was a lot of angerso recorded and there was a lot of anger so a lot of people find this disingenuous and see this as trying to save face and labour has a very long way to go to win back trust. this is notjust muslim voters, there are many other councillors, non—muslim councillors who resigned from the party, i believe 98 labour councillors resigned over gaza but all the muslim community, i think this is notjust about gaza, muslims

who are disproportionately working class and disproportionately in the labour heartlands have consistently voted for the party and many have felt they have been taken for granted. labour has often approached muslims in minority communities through the prism of social and community leaders and this idea that individuals within the communities can give them a block vote and when you get incredibly young people politicised by what's happening in gaza and we saw this with the rack as well, labour has now to try to win over a plurality of voters and voters who are going to ask tough questions and that is going to be a serious headache for the party in the years to come.— serious headache for the party in the years to come. thank you very much for coming _ the years to come. thank you very much for coming in _ the years to come. thank you very much for coming in the _ the years to come. thank you very| much for coming in the programme giving us a bit of the nuanced picture of what is broadly a very good night for labour. conservative is not so much. nick eardley can ta ke take us through that. it's been a really tough now for the tories and the conservative party h o i am sure they are trying to find some of the

positives and areas where